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United States
Profits and Politics to Shape Growth Trends After Sluggish Recovery in Second Quarter
By
Joseph G. Carson
,
Senior Vice President and Director—Global Economic Research
Moderate GDP growth amid uncertainty over policy changes complicates the economic outlook for the remainder of 2010. But we think strong gains in corporate operating profits offer the best guide for the economy’s basic trend, as long as regulatory and policy issues are cleared up as soon as possible.
7/23/2010
Canada
Whither Goes the Canadian Dollar?
By
Lars Pedersen
,
Senior Economist—Latin America Research
The Bank of Canada has begun raising rates after a one-year “conditional commitment” to hold rates at record lows. Have the markets fully priced the predictable but delayed rate hikes now emerging?
7/16/2010
Latin America
Argentina and Venezuela: Prisoners of Populism?
By
Lars Pedersen
,
Senior Economist—Latin America Research
The governments of these two Latin American countries have chosen populism and power over globalization and economic integration. Venezuela appears to be the more vulnerable.
7/23/2010
Asia
China’s Next Leap Forward—Economic Rebalancing and Structural Adjustment (Part 3)
By
Anthony Chan
,
Senior Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst
In our last report, we argued that recent evidence of China’s economic rebalancing largely boils down to cyclical factors and that the effect of structural changes to date has been relatively limited. In this issue, we focus on the structural policies we think China needs to create a consumer sector comparable to those of other major world economies.
7/23/2010
Europe
Improved Household Finances Could Help Cushion Spain’s Fiscal Adjustment
By
Darren K. Williams
,
Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst
Spain is still running a substantial current account deficit and the financing environment remains hostile. Foreign borrowing is likely to fall further as the government starts to cut its massive budget deficit. Fortunately, the household sector is now running a huge financial surplus which could act as a cushion against aggressive fiscal tightening.
7/16/2010
Australia
Australia and New Zealand: From Crises and Austerity to Fiscal Paragons
By
Guy Bruten
,
Manager—Australian Fixed Income Strategy and Research
In contrast to the fiscal woes of Greece and other peripheral euro-area countries, the budgetary positions of Australia and New Zealand tell a tale of fiscal prudence—as highlighted by the national budgets released last month.
6/11/2010
North America
Profits and Politics to Shape Growth Trends After Sluggish Recovery in Second Quarter
(PDF) 7/23/2010
Argentina and Venezuela: Prisoners of Populism?
(PDF) 7/23/2010
Income Flows and Tax Receipts Offer a More Upbeat View of the US Economy
(PDF) 7/16/2010
Whither Goes the Canadian Dollar?
(PDF) 7/16/2010
No Sign of Double Dip Recession in US Leading Economic Indicators
(PDF) 7/9/2010
Latin America Moves Toward Sustained Growth
(PDF) 7/9/2010
Outlook for US and Global Recovery Clouded by a Litany of Fundamental and Policy Issues
(PDF) 7/2/2010
US Households Continue to Reduce Debt Burdens and Boost Liquidity
(PDF) 6/25/2010
Changing Growth Dynamics Unfold as Manufacturing Offsets Housing Weakness
(PDF) 6/18/2010
US Private Sector Continues to Boost Liquidity and Repair Balance Sheets
(PDF) 6/11/2010
Improving Employment and Income Picture Bodes Well for Self-Sustaining Growth Cycle
(PDF) 6/4/2010
Emerging Markets Continue to Propel US Industrial Output and Export Growth
(PDF) 5/28/2010
US Economic Growth Prospects Are Tested amid Fresh Bout of Global Financial Turmoil
(PDF) 5/21/2010
Labor Market Improvements Indicate US Economic Recovery Is Gaining Traction
(PDF) 5/14/2010
GDP Forecast Raised to 4% as US Economic Momentum Picks Up on Several Fronts
(PDF) 5/7/2010
Sharp Rebound in US Corporate Earnings Generates Cash Antidote to Tighter Credit
(PDF) 4/30/2010
Broadening Manufacturing Rebound Provides Diversified Sources for Sustainable Growth
(PDF) 4/23/2010
Time for the Fed to Rethink Its Policy Stance: Zero Percent Rates Are No Longer Warranted
(PDF) 4/16/2010
Rate-Tightening Cycle in Brazil Seems Imminent
(PDF) 4/16/2010
Rapid Rise in US Export Orders Supports “New Mix” Prognosis for Economic Recovery
(PDF) 4/9/2010
The Job Recovery Signposts We Watch For
(PDF) 4/9/2010
Ongoing Inventory Decline Signals Stronger Production and Earnings Growth Ahead
(PDF) 4/1/2010
Argentina: Short-Term Relief...but Looming Risks
(PDF) 4/1/2010
What Will Companies Do with So Much Cash?
(PDF) 3/26/2010
Canada’s Quiet Manufacturing Comeback
(PDF) 3/26/2010
Improving Household Liquidity and Cash Flows Provide Support for Fragile US Consumers
(PDF) 3/19/2010
Brazil Balks on Raising Interest Rates
(PDF) 3/19/2010
Industrial Price Signals Should Boost the Fed’s Confidence in US Economic Recovery
(PDF) 3/12/2010
Bank of Canada Falls Further Behind the Curve
(PDF) 3/12/2010
Sustained Growth Likely to Force Fed’s Hand on Interest Rates
(PDF) 3/5/2010
Mexico Moves Up
(PDF) 3/5/2010
Monetary Policy Rethink Must Move Beyond Narrow Inflation Focus
(PDF) 2/26/2010
Energy Drives Exports and Economic Outlook
(PDF) 2/26/2010
Can the US Ensure Fiscal Sustainability as Deficit Swells and Debt Burden Rises?
(PDF) 2/19/2010
New Mortgage Rules Are Unlikely to Change Policy Course
(PDF) 2/19/2010
Will Productivity Gains Sustain US Economic Recovery if Employment Remains Subdued?
(PDF) 2/12/2010
Import Trends Reinforce Rate-Hike Leanings
(PDF) 2/12/2010
Historic Turn in Financial Balance of US Private Sector Limits Damage from Public Debt Binge
(PDF) 2/5/2010
What Has Stronger Asian Growth Done for Canada Lately?
(PDF) 2/5/2010
Recovery Begins with a New Mix of Drivers Shaping US Economic Growth
(PDF) 1/29/2010
Gauging Economic Momentum
(PDF) 1/29/2010
Much More to Come from US Inventory Cycle, Even After Big Boost to Fourth-Quarter GDP
(PDF) 1/22/2010
Rate Hikes? Probably Not Until June
(PDF) 1/22/2010
Renaissance for US Exports Fuels Manufacturing Recovery
(PDF) 1/15/2010
Is the Housing Recovery Providing Another Incentive to Tighten?
(PDF) 1/15/2010
Fast Manufacturing Rebound Offers First Surprise of US Economic Recovery
(PDF) 1/8/2010
Will Inflation Be the Dominant Issue in 2010?
(PDF) 1/8/2010
Growing Momentum for Economic Recovery Could Force Early 2010 Shift in Fed Policy
(PDF) 12/18/2009
Export Resurgence Bolsters GDP Outlook
(PDF) 12/18/2009
Policymakers Need Broader Framework to Evaluate Prices and Prevent Bubbles
(PDF) 12/11/2009
Consumer Up, Currency Worries Down
(PDF) 12/11/2009
Foreign Companies to Exploit Weak Dollar by Shifting Assembly and Sourcing to US Sites
(PDF) 12/4/2009
The Great Canadian Divide
(PDF) 12/4/2009
Long-term Budget Outlook: Will It Be as Bad as Expected?
(PDF) 11/20/2009
Inflation Enters the Debate
(PDF) 11/20/2009
Weak Labor Markets Do Not Pose Fatal Threat to Nascent US Economic Recovery
(PDF) 11/16/2009
Tracking Underlying Job-Market Dynamics
(PDF) 11/16/2009
Manufacturing Rebound Signals US Market Share Gains and Turning Point for Inventories
(PDF) 11/6/2009
Inventory Drawdown Still a Major (but Temporary) Drag
(PDF) 11/6/2009
Deconstructing the “New Normal”: Innovation to Shape US Growth Trends as Recession Fades
(PDF) 10/30/2009
Housing’s Rapid Return Highlights Canada’s Economic Dichotomy
(PDF) 10/30/2009
GDP Recovery Expected to Start with Broad Gains Across US Economy
(PDF) 10/23/2009
GDP Bulls Get a Wake-Up Call
(PDF) 10/23/2009
Inflation Fears Appear Exaggerated but Fed Must Proceed with Caution
(PDF) 10/16/2009
Jobs: Good News and Nagging Questions
(PDF) 10/16/2009
End of Inventory Liquidation Needed to Breathe Life into US Labor Market
(PDF) 10/9/2009
Do the Right Thing, Governor Carney!
(PDF) 10/9/2009
Liquidity Flows Support Economic Recovery Despite Near-Term Risks
(PDF) 10/2/2009
Can Economy Shift from Fragile Recovery to Sustainable Growth?
(PDF) 9/25/2009
Retail Sales Bring Recovery Realism
(PDF) 9/25/2009
Rapid Reduction of Consumer Debt Burden to Help Sustain Recovery
(PDF) 9/18/2009
Consumer Spending Firms, but It Won't Help Third-Quarter GDP
(PDF) 9/18/2009
Export Outlook Raises Hope for US Manufacturing Renaissance
(PDF) 9/11/2009
Job Woes Continue
(PDF) 9/11/2009
US Manufacturing Recovery Poised to Accelerate as Liquidity Improves
(PDF) 9/4/2009
The Outlook for Canadian Exports
(PDF) 9/4/2009
Manufacturing Will Determine The Speed of the Recovery
(PDF) 8/28/2009
Housing Is Healing, Slowly
(PDF) 8/28/2009
US Manufacturing Trade Deficit Needs Attention From Policymakers
(PDF) 8/21/2009
Did Manufacturing Turn in June?
(PDF) 8/21/2009
Is Currency Intervention the Next Step?
(PDF) 8/14/2009
Growing Momentum in Autos and Housing May Accelerate Recovery
(PDF) 8/10/2009
GDP Shows Recession Is Ending but No Clarity on Speed of Recovery
(PDF) 7/31/2009
More Sobering Details on Jobs
(PDF) 7/31/2009
What Could Derail the US Economic Recovery?
(PDF) 7/24/2009
The Canadian Dollar and the Prospects for Recovery
(PDF) 7/24/2009
Demand Rebound Needed to Sustain Economy After Inventory Liquidation
(PDF) 7/17/2009
The Devil Is in the Job Details
(PDF) 7/17/2009
Perspectives on Labor Market Trends and the US Business Cycle
(PDF) 7/10/2009
Canada’s Inventory Restocking Will Be Slow in Coming
(PDF) 7/10/2009
Growth Signs Shift Economic Focus to Sustainability and Inflation
(PDF) 7/3/2009
Capital Spending Stages Recovery Despite Record Low Capacity Use
(PDF) 6/26/2009
Gauging the Consumer's Health
(PDF) 6/26/2009
US Federal Spending Path Offers First Glimpse of Stimulus Effect
(PDF) 6/19/2009
From Many Angles, Housing Looks Better
(PDF) 6/19/2009
Fed Faces Delicate Balancing Act in Preparing to Shift Monetary Policy
(PDF) 6/12/2009
On Trade, Currency Matters-but the US Matters More
(PDF) 6/12/2009
Will the US Debt Burden Undermine the Economy’s Long-Term Growth?
(PDF) 6/5/2009
Implications of a Stronger Canadian Dollar
(PDF) 6/5/2009
Have US Housing Prices Hit Bottom?
(PDF) 5/29/2009
Are Retail Sales Pointing to an Economic Recovery?
(PDF) 5/29/2009
Consumers and Businesses Show Growing Optimism About the Future
(PDF) 5/22/2009
Will the Bank of Canada Be Forced to Try Harder?
(PDF) 5/22/2009
Consumer Spending Rebound Still Likely Despite Weak Retail Sales
(PDF) 5/15/2009
Does the Financial Conditions Index Offer Hope?
(PDF) 5/15/2009
Could Beleaguered Auto Industry Add to Second-Half Recovery?
(PDF) 5/8/2009
Surge in Permits Offers Few Clues
(PDF) 5/8/2009
Expect the Unexpected: Economic Recoveries Are Full of Surprises
(PDF) 5/1/2009
Inventories Start the Slow Turn
(PDF) 5/1/2009
US Appetite for Risk Taking Differs from Japanese Experience
(PDF) 4/24/2009
Productivity Gains Defy Downturn and Bolster Hopes of US Recovery
(PDF) 4/17/2009
Jobs and the Canadian West
(PDF) 4/17/2009
Labor Markets Provide Important Signals for Growth Outlook
(PDF) 4/9/2009
Canada's Reliance on US Trade Is Falling-Fast
(PDF) 4/9/2009
Economy Faces Tug-of-War Between Inflationary and Deflationary Forces
(PDF) 4/3/2009
Can Firmer Oil Prices Help Canada?
(PDF) 4/3/2009
Good News: Initial Signs of Stability Appear Before Stimulus Kicks In
(PDF) 3/27/2009
Canada's Place in the QE Queue
(PDF) 3/27/2009
Recovery in Liquidity Flows Heralds ISM Manufacturing Rebound
(PDF) 3/20/2009
The US Fed's Quantitative Easing and Canada
(PDF) 3/20/2009
Consumers Show Signs of Life Despite Big Hit to Balance Sheets
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Inventories Suggest Tough Slog Ahead
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Where is the Inventory Overhang?
(PDF) 3/6/2009
The Helpful Link Between US Stocks and the Canadian Dollar
(PDF) 3/6/2009
More Inventory Liquidation to Come as Economy Suffers Hard Landing
(PDF) 2/27/2009
And the Survey Says...Ouch!
(PDF) 2/27/2009
Consumer Survey Highlights Rising Debt to Home Ratios
(PDF) 2/20/2009
Global Woes Crush Canadian Exports
(PDF) 2/20/2009
Speed of Fiscal Initiatives Bodes Well for Second Half Recovery
(PDF) 2/13/2009
How Bad is the Canadian Jobs Market ex-Manufacturing?
(PDF) 2/13/2009
Recession Figures Warn of Dangers Ahead Without Rapid Stimulus
(PDF) 2/6/2009
Canada's Housing Sector Is Still Reeling
(PDF) 2/6/2009
Structure of US Fiscal Stimulus Plan Points to Investment-Led Recovery
(PDF) 1/30/2009
Canada's New Budget and Growth Prospects
(PDF) 1/30/2009
Three Indicators to Trust for Insight on Outlook Despite Poor Visibility
(PDF) 1/23/2009
The Bank of Canada and Jobs
(PDF) 1/23/2009
Will Obama’s Record Stimulus Plan Revive the US Economy?
(PDF) 1/16/2009
A Trade Deficit Is Not Inevitable
(PDF) 1/16/2009
Roadmap to US Recovery in 2009 Requires Revival of Risk Appetites
(PDF) 1/9/2009
Asia Pacific
China’s Next Leap Forward—Economic Rebalancing and Structural Adjustment (Part 3)
(PDF) 7/23/2010
China’s Next Leap Forward—Economic Rebalancing and Structural Adjustment (Part 2)
(PDF) 7/9/2010
China’s Next Leap Forward—Economic Rebalancing and Structural Adjustment (Part 1)
(PDF) 7/2/2010
China Update: Steady as She Goes, and Even Less Chance of a Sharp RMB Revaluation
(PDF) 6/18/2010
Australia and New Zealand: From Crises and Austerity to Fiscal Paragons
(PDF) 6/11/2010
We Raise Our Asia Growth Forecast, Despite Headwinds Blowing from Europe
(PDF) 6/4/2010
Europe’s Debt Crisis Will Hit Asia’s Recovery if Amplified by Second-Round Effects
(PDF) 5/20/2010
China’s Property Correction Is Unlikely to Derail Its Economic Recovery
(PDF) 5/14/2010
Currency Appreciations Point Asia Towards a Smooth Policy Exit
(PDF) 5/7/2010
Australia Acts as Canary in the World’s Inflation Coal Mine
(PDF) 4/30/2010
Our Forecast for KRW/USD Appreciation Stays on Track, Despite Near-Term Headwinds
(PDF) 4/30/2010
Interest-Rate Rises Look Increasingly Likely as Australia Heads Back to Boom Time
(PDF) 4/23/2010
Singapore’s Proactive Tightening to Underpin SGD Appreciation
(PDF) 4/16/2010
Indonesia’s Bonds and Currency Set to Outperform on Improved Fundamentals
(PDF) 4/1/2010
China’s Hidden Domestic Public Debt: Some Perspective on the Risks It Poses
(PDF) 3/19/2010
China’s Hidden Domestic Public Debt: Some Perspective on the Risks It Poses
(PDF) 3/12/2010
Asia’s 2010 Outlook: Strong Growth and Tame Inflation Reduce Risks of Policy Shock
(PDF) 3/5/2010
China Returns to a Neutral Fiscal Stance as Economy Recovers
(PDF) 2/26/2010
The Mining Boom Is Back
(PDF) 2/26/2010
Rest of Asia to Follow China’s Lead on Domestic Demand Growth in 2010
(PDF) 2/12/2010
Korea’s Fundamentals Still Support a Strong KRW
(PDF) 2/5/2010
What Are the Implications of China’s Policy Tightening?—Our Answers to the Main FAQs
(PDF) 1/29/2010
China Free to Tighten Policy as Hot Money Inflows Stay Cool
(PDF) 1/22/2010
Unemployment Peaks Early, but There Are Still Reasons for Caution
(PDF) 1/22/2010
China’s Decisive Rate Rise Keeps It Ahead of the Curve
(PDF) 1/15/2010
Asia’s Bright 2010 Prospects Depend on Markets and Policymakers Staying Calm
(PDF) 1/8/2010
The Australasian Outlook: Six Key Themes for 2010
(PDF) 1/8/2010
Investment and Credit Slowdown Complicate China’s 2010 Policy Outlook
(PDF) 12/18/2009
Asia’s Export Trends Point to a Broader Recovery in Global Demand
(PDF) 12/11/2009
Monthly Data Point to Slower Asia Growth, but Double-Dip Fears Are Overdone
(PDF) 12/4/2009
Timing of Renminbi Revaluation May Still Depend on Export Recovery
(PDF) 11/20/2009
China’s Prospects of a Smooth Monetary Exit Appear Promising as Loan Growth Moderates
(PDF) 11/16/2009
RBA Stays Cool on Rising Currency as Global Peers Feel the Heat
(PDF) 11/6/2009
We Upgrade Our China GDP Forecast as Economic Recovery Broadens
(PDF) 10/30/2009
Taking Stock of Asia’s Recovery: Leaders, Laggards and Likely Policy Moves
(PDF) 10/16/2009
Korea’s Fundamentals Remain Favorable to KRW Appreciation
(PDF) 10/9/2009
RBA’s Early Move: a Stitch in Time to Save More Rate-Rise Pain Later?
(PDF) 10/9/2009
Rising Industrial Profits Bode Well for China’s Investment Recovery
(PDF) 10/2/2009
Asia’s Patchy Consumption Growth Leans Heavily on Fiscal Stimulus
(PDF) 9/25/2009
Asia’s Inflation May Be Moderate, if Policymakers Avoid Past Mistakes
(PDF) 9/18/2009
Confidence Surges—but Has the Mood Become Too Optimistic?
(PDF) 9/18/2009
China’s Monetary Policy Exit Strategy Hits Political Speed Humps
(PDF) 9/11/2009
Bounce In Government Revenue Enhances China’s Fiscal Capability
(PDF) 8/21/2009
No Alarm Bells Yet, but Is Core Inflation Looking a Little Sticky?
(PDF) 8/21/2009
Asia’s Export Recovery Widens to Include More Markets and Products
(PDF) 8/14/2009
China’s Next Leap Forward: Will It Be as World’s Biggest Consumer?
(PDF) 8/7/2009
Debt No Hindrance as Korea Moves to Fore of Asia’s Resurgence
(PDF) 7/24/2009
Fears that China Will Tighten Early and Choke Recovery Are Overdone
(PDF) 7/17/2009
China May Surprise Consensus (Again) with a Durable Recovery
(PDF) 7/10/2009
Growth Forecasts Rise as Australian Consumer Trends Defy Downturn
(PDF) 7/10/2009
China Enhances Growth with Improved Fiscal Trends and Outlook
(PDF) 6/26/2009
China’s Economic Model May Be Vindicated as Growth Moves Inland
(PDF) 6/19/2009
Improving Financial Factors Underscore Economic Recovery
(PDF) 6/12/2009
China’s Expansionary Policy Boosts Chances of a Consumer Boom
(PDF) 6/12/2009
Still Bullish on Growth, with a Weather Eye on RBA’s Next Move
(PDF) 6/12/2009
Restocking in Autos Helps Output Recovery, But Risk Persists
(PDF) 6/5/2009
China, Rather than Asian Region, Is Contributing to Global Rebalancing
(PDF) 6/5/2009
Japan’s Exports Supported by China Demand, but Strong Yen Weighs
(PDF) 5/29/2009
Stockpile Risk to China’s Recovery Appears Overstated
(PDF) 5/29/2009
Risk of Deflationary Spiral Persists as GDP Growth Appears to Bottom
(PDF) 5/22/2009
As the West Struggles, Emerging Markets Start Asia’s Export Revival
(PDF) 5/22/2009
BOJ Leans Toward Easier Policy Despite Signs of Economic Upturn
(PDF) 5/15/2009
China’s Investment Recovery Helps Absorb Some Slack in Global Trade
(PDF) 5/15/2009
China’s Fiscal Boost Shows Signs of Spilling into Broader Economy
(PDF) 5/8/2009
Yen Is Likely to Continue Weakening Despite Uncertainty of Stimulus
(PDF) 5/1/2009
China’s FX Reserves Diversification Is Positive for Gold Price and RMB
(PDF) 5/1/2009
A Tough Year Ahead, but Prospects for a Recovery Are Encouraging
(PDF) 5/1/2009
Debt Monetization Pressure Mounts on Bank of Japan
(PDF) 4/24/2009
India Will Continue Easing Monetary Policy Until Loan Growth Resumes
(PDF) 4/24/2009
Will Record Fiscal Stimulus Cure Japan’s Woes?
(PDF) 4/17/2009
RMB Outlook Hinges on USD Trend, Despite China’s Improved Prospects
(PDF) 4/17/2009
Yen’s Correction May Help Japan’s Lagging Economy
(PDF) 4/9/2009
Asia’s Policy Stimulus May Offset Most of Its Potential Export Loss
(PDF) 4/9/2009
Industrial Output Begins to Show Signs of Bottoming
(PDF) 4/3/2009
Signs of Stabilization in Korea Enhance Asia’s Recovery Prospects
(PDF) 4/3/2009
Widening GDP Gap Calls for Outlay Beyond Government’s Means
(PDF) 3/27/2009
China’s Shock Proposal May Reshape Global Financial System
(PDF) 3/27/2009
Inventory Overhang Dims Prospects of Output Rebound
(PDF) 3/20/2009
Has China’s Investment Recovery Benefited Global Suppliers?
(PDF) 3/20/2009
Demographic Concerns Deepen Japanese Firms’ Labor Dilemma
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Latest Investment Figures Show China’s Recovery Is Taking Hold
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Jobs Pain Begins, but Household Balance Sheets Have Improved
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Deeper Trough Likely Before Eventual Economic Recovery
(PDF) 3/6/2009
Income, Rather than Retail Data, Offers Clue to China Consumption
(PDF) 3/6/2009
Worsening Trade Deficit Changes Outlook for Yen
(PDF) 2/27/2009
China Joins Flight to Quality with Boost to Holdings of US$ Assets
(PDF) 2/27/2009
Commodity Prices and Policy Trade Places in Economic Tug-of-War
(PDF) 2/27/2009
External Sector Remains a Drag on Growth Despite Positive Price Effect
(PDF) 2/20/2009
Factors Behind Japan’s Recession Suggest Yen May Soon Lose Steam
(PDF) 2/13/2009
China Recovers, but Offers Little Help to Regional Trading Partners
(PDF) 2/13/2009
Free Fall in Industrial Output Signals Historic Recession Is Unfolding
(PDF) 2/6/2009
US’s Lifeline Steadies Korea but Pressure to Repay Debt Remains
(PDF) 2/6/2009
With Policy Now Clearly Stimulatory, the RBA Appears Ready to Pause
(PDF) 2/6/2009
Tighter Bank Lending Heightens Risk of Economy’s Downward Spiral
(PDF) 1/23/2009
Fear of Jobs Crisis Keeps Beijing Under Pressure to Depreciate RMB
(PDF) 1/23/2009
Credit Growth Rebound Increases Chances of China’s Recovery
(PDF) 1/16/2009
Japan Faces Worst Ever Recession with No Bottom in Sight
(PDF) 1/9/2009
Europe
Improved Household Finances Could Help Cushion Spain’s Fiscal Adjustment
(PDF) 7/16/2010
German Industry’s Record-Breaking Upswing
(PDF) 7/9/2010
Euro-Area Banks Reduce Their Borrowing from the ECB
(PDF) 7/2/2010
Euro-Area Survey Data Remain Resilient
(PDF) 6/25/2010
UK Policy Mix and the Gilt Market
(PDF) 6/18/2010
Germany’s Prospects Still Look Good
(PDF) 6/11/2010
Cyclical and Structural Factors Support Stronger Swedish Krona
(PDF) 6/4/2010
Challenging Times for the German Central Banking Model
(PDF) 5/28/2010
Financial Market Stress Threatens Euro-Area Recovery
(PDF) 5/21/2010
Europe’s Leaders Buy Time for the Periphery
(PDF) 5/14/2010
Euro-Area Periphery Crisis Escalates
(PDF) 5/7/2010
Is Portugal Next?
(PDF) 4/23/2010
ECB Exit Strategy Faces its First Real Test
(PDF) 4/16/2010
Greek Crisis Unlikely to Derail Recovery in the Rest of the Euro Area
(PDF) 4/9/2010
Greece Diverges from the Rest of the Periphery
(PDF) 4/1/2010
UK Budget Ducks Key Fiscal Challenges
(PDF) 3/26/2010
Reconciling Hard and Soft Data in the Euro Area
(PDF) 3/19/2010
Euro-Area Fiscal Position Better than Implied by the Troubled Periphery
(PDF) 3/12/2010
Gilts, Political Risk and the UK Election
(PDF) 3/5/2010
Euro-Area Recovery Still Export-Dependent
(PDF) 2/26/2010
Euro-Area Imbalances: Is Germany Part of the Problem?
(PDF) 2/12/2010
Greek Financial Woes Escalate but Default or Euro Departure is Still Unlikely
(PDF) 2/5/2010
Weak Periphery Hits the Euro
(PDF) 1/29/2010
Has UK Unemployment Peaked?
(PDF) 1/22/2010
Weak Periphery to Weigh on Euro-Area Growth
(PDF) 1/15/2010
The Worst Is Over for the UK Consumer
(PDF) 1/8/2010
Challenging 2010 for the Euro Area
(PDF) 12/18/2009
UK: Austerity Postponed
(PDF) 12/14/2009
Greece Comes Under the Spotlight
(PDF) 12/4/2009
Output Gap Uncertainties Cloud UK Monetary Policy Outlook
(PDF) 11/20/2009
Third Quarter GDP Data Highlight Euro-Area Divergence
(PDF) 11/16/2009
Little Evidence of a Broad-Based Credit Crunch for Euro Area Companies
(PDF) 11/6/2009
Will Weak GDP Data Lead to More Quantitative Easing in the UK?
(PDF) 10/30/2009
Will a Rising Euro Derail the Recovery?
(PDF) 10/23/2009
Headline GDP Data Disguise Euro-Area Frailties
(PDF) 10/16/2009
Will Rising Household Savings Derail a UK Recovery?
(PDF) 10/9/2009
Is Sterling Low Enough to Spark a Revival in Manufacturing?
(PDF) 9/25/2009
Euro Area Trade Data Hold Two Important Messages
(PDF) 9/18/2009
UK Real and Monetary Data Point to Different Policy Prescriptions
(PDF) 9/11/2009
Does Japan’s Rebound Hold Any Clues for the Euro Area?
(PDF) 9/4/2009
Second Quarter GDP Surprise Puts the Euro Area Close to Recovery
(PDF) 8/14/2009
Germany Likely to Lead During the Euro-Area Upswing
(PDF) 8/7/2009
Euro Overvalued at Current Levels
(PDF) 7/31/2009
UK Retail Sales Data Overstate the Strength of Consumer Spending
(PDF) 7/24/2009
Asian Demand Not Yet Strong Enough to Lift Euro-Area Exports
(PDF) 7/17/2009
Positive Fundamentals Point to Stronger Norwegian Krone
(PDF) 7/10/2009
The Bank of England’s QE Dilemma
(PDF) 7/2/2009
Euro-Area Inventory Cycle Close to Turning Point
(PDF) 6/26/2009
Labor Market Rigidities Could Weigh on Euro-Area Recovery
(PDF) 6/19/2009
Sterling Rises, but Medium-Term Outlook Still Cloudy
(PDF) 6/12/2009
Stronger UK Data Argue Against Additional Gilt Purchases
(PDF) 6/5/2009
Record Decline in Euro-Area Output May Point to Shorter Recession
(PDF) 5/29/2009
Euro-Area Export Outlook Brightens, but Watch the Euro
(PDF) 5/22/2009
Interest Rates Still Matter in the UK
(PDF) 5/15/2009
Deflation Risks Recede as Bank of England Increases Gilt Purchases
(PDF) 5/8/2009
Recovery Hopes Rise, but Euro Area Likely to Lag Other Countries
(PDF) 5/1/2009
UK Quantitative Easing: Will it Work, and How Will Gilt Yields React?
(PDF) 4/24/2009
Signs of Hope in the UK
(PDF) 4/9/2009
Has the Euro-Area Economy Reached a Turning Point?
(PDF) 4/3/2009
Quantitative Easing and the ECB
(PDF) 3/27/2009
Can the Euro Survive?
(PDF) 3/20/2009
Germany’s Achilles’ Heel
(PDF) 3/13/2009
Quantitative Easing Has Arrived
(PDF) 3/6/2009
Resilient Consumer Unlikely to Stop Another Big Drop in Euro-Area GDP
(PDF) 2/27/2009
Bank of England Moves One Step Closer to Quantitative Easing
(PDF) 2/13/2009
Assessing the Downside for the UK Housing Market
(PDF) 2/6/2009
ECB Injections Boost Money Market Liquidity ? but Not Lending
(PDF) 1/30/2009
Tough Times for the UK Consumer
(PDF) 1/23/2009
Caution Required Despite Wider Euro-Area Spreads
(PDF) 1/16/2009
Winter Chill Blows Hard in Germany
(PDF) 1/9/2009
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