Economic Perspectives
United States
Weak Labor Markets Do Not Pose Fatal Threat to Nascent US Economic Recovery
By  Joseph G. Carson , Senior Vice President and Director—Global Economic Research
After deep recessions, gains in jobs, wages and salary income are needed to stabilize and sustain the new economic cycle. We believe that the current spike in US unemployment has been driven by a combination of cyclical and noncyclical factors that are not incongruous with a durable economic recovery. 11/16/2009
Canada
Tracking Underlying Job-Market Dynamics
By  James Barrineau , Senior Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst
With hours worked still weak and little pickup in private-sector jobs, we still find considerable slack in the Canadian job market. These factors should continue to restrain economic recovery. 11/16/2009
Asia
China’s Prospects of a Smooth Monetary Exit Appear Promising as Loan Growth Moderates
By  Anthony Chan , Senior Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst
A slowdown in new loan growth suggests Beijing is managing monetary policy well enough to rein in liquidity expansion to a healthier level next year—one that will be consistent with nominal GDP growth and that will also keep inflation at bay. 11/16/2009
Europe
Third Quarter GDP Data Highlight Euro-Area Divergence
By  Darren K. Williams , Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst
Euro-area GDP rose by 0.4% in the third quarter, slightly weaker than generally expected. Although full details are not yet available, exports seem to have risen strongly in most countries, but the news on consumption is soft. Spain again stands out as the weakest large economy in the euro area. 11/16/2009
Australia
RBA Stays Cool on Rising Currency as Global Peers Feel the Heat
By  Guy Bruten , Manager—Australian Fixed Income Strategy and Research
Central banks in Canada and New Zealand are clearly showing more sensitivity to their rising currencies than the Reserve Bank of Australia in considering monetary policy strategy. One reason the RBA’s tacit acknowledgement that a strong Australian dollar is necessary part of economic rebalancing towards the resources sector in response to continuing stung demand from China. 11/6/2009

North America

 Weak Labor Markets Do Not Pose Fatal Threat to Nascent US Economic Recovery (PDF) 11/16/2009
 Tracking Underlying Job-Market Dynamics (PDF) 11/16/2009
 Manufacturing Rebound Signals US Market Share Gains and Turning Point for Inventories (PDF) 11/6/2009
 Inventory Drawdown Still a Major (but Temporary) Drag (PDF) 11/6/2009
 Deconstructing the “New Normal”: Innovation to Shape US Growth Trends as Recession Fades (PDF) 10/30/2009
 Housing’s Rapid Return Highlights Canada’s Economic Dichotomy (PDF) 10/30/2009
 GDP Recovery Expected to Start with Broad Gains Across US Economy (PDF) 10/23/2009
 GDP Bulls Get a Wake-Up Call (PDF) 10/23/2009
 Inflation Fears Appear Exaggerated but Fed Must Proceed with Caution (PDF) 10/16/2009
 Jobs: Good News and Nagging Questions (PDF) 10/16/2009
 End of Inventory Liquidation Needed to Breathe Life into US Labor Market (PDF) 10/9/2009
 Do the Right Thing, Governor Carney! (PDF) 10/9/2009
 Liquidity Flows Support Economic Recovery Despite Near-Term Risks (PDF) 10/2/2009
 Can Economy Shift from Fragile Recovery to Sustainable Growth? (PDF) 9/25/2009
 Retail Sales Bring Recovery Realism (PDF) 9/25/2009
 Rapid Reduction of Consumer Debt Burden to Help Sustain Recovery (PDF) 9/18/2009
 Consumer Spending Firms, but It Won't Help Third-Quarter GDP (PDF) 9/18/2009
 Export Outlook Raises Hope for US Manufacturing Renaissance (PDF) 9/11/2009
 Job Woes Continue (PDF) 9/11/2009
 US Manufacturing Recovery Poised to Accelerate as Liquidity Improves (PDF) 9/4/2009
 The Outlook for Canadian Exports (PDF) 9/4/2009
 Manufacturing Will Determine The Speed of the Recovery (PDF) 8/28/2009
 Housing Is Healing, Slowly (PDF) 8/28/2009
 US Manufacturing Trade Deficit Needs Attention From Policymakers (PDF) 8/21/2009
 Did Manufacturing Turn in June? (PDF) 8/21/2009
 Is Currency Intervention the Next Step? (PDF) 8/14/2009
 Growing Momentum in Autos and Housing May Accelerate Recovery (PDF) 8/10/2009
 GDP Shows Recession Is Ending but No Clarity on Speed of Recovery (PDF) 7/31/2009
 More Sobering Details on Jobs (PDF) 7/31/2009
 What Could Derail the US Economic Recovery? (PDF) 7/24/2009
 The Canadian Dollar and the Prospects for Recovery (PDF) 7/24/2009
 Demand Rebound Needed to Sustain Economy After Inventory Liquidation (PDF) 7/17/2009
 The Devil Is in the Job Details (PDF) 7/17/2009
 Perspectives on Labor Market Trends and the US Business Cycle (PDF) 7/10/2009
 Canada’s Inventory Restocking Will Be Slow in Coming (PDF) 7/10/2009
 Growth Signs Shift Economic Focus to Sustainability and Inflation (PDF) 7/3/2009
 Capital Spending Stages Recovery Despite Record Low Capacity Use (PDF) 6/26/2009
 Gauging the Consumer's Health (PDF) 6/26/2009
 US Federal Spending Path Offers First Glimpse of Stimulus Effect (PDF) 6/19/2009
 From Many Angles, Housing Looks Better (PDF) 6/19/2009
 Fed Faces Delicate Balancing Act in Preparing to Shift Monetary Policy (PDF) 6/12/2009
 On Trade, Currency Matters-but the US Matters More (PDF) 6/12/2009
 Will the US Debt Burden Undermine the Economy’s Long-Term Growth? (PDF) 6/5/2009
 Implications of a Stronger Canadian Dollar (PDF) 6/5/2009
 Have US Housing Prices Hit Bottom? (PDF) 5/29/2009
 Are Retail Sales Pointing to an Economic Recovery? (PDF) 5/29/2009
 Consumers and Businesses Show Growing Optimism About the Future (PDF) 5/22/2009
 Will the Bank of Canada Be Forced to Try Harder? (PDF) 5/22/2009
 Consumer Spending Rebound Still Likely Despite Weak Retail Sales (PDF) 5/15/2009
 Does the Financial Conditions Index Offer Hope? (PDF) 5/15/2009
 Could Beleaguered Auto Industry Add to Second-Half Recovery? (PDF) 5/8/2009
 Surge in Permits Offers Few Clues (PDF) 5/8/2009
 Expect the Unexpected: Economic Recoveries Are Full of Surprises (PDF) 5/1/2009
 Inventories Start the Slow Turn (PDF) 5/1/2009
 US Appetite for Risk Taking Differs from Japanese Experience (PDF) 4/24/2009
 Productivity Gains Defy Downturn and Bolster Hopes of US Recovery (PDF) 4/17/2009
 Jobs and the Canadian West (PDF) 4/17/2009
 Labor Markets Provide Important Signals for Growth Outlook (PDF) 4/9/2009
 Canada's Reliance on US Trade Is Falling-Fast (PDF) 4/9/2009
 Economy Faces Tug-of-War Between Inflationary and Deflationary Forces (PDF) 4/3/2009
 Can Firmer Oil Prices Help Canada? (PDF) 4/3/2009
 Good News: Initial Signs of Stability Appear Before Stimulus Kicks In (PDF) 3/27/2009
 Canada's Place in the QE Queue (PDF) 3/27/2009
 Recovery in Liquidity Flows Heralds ISM Manufacturing Rebound (PDF) 3/20/2009
 The US Fed's Quantitative Easing and Canada (PDF) 3/20/2009
 Consumers Show Signs of Life Despite Big Hit to Balance Sheets (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Inventories Suggest Tough Slog Ahead (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Where is the Inventory Overhang? (PDF) 3/6/2009
 The Helpful Link Between US Stocks and the Canadian Dollar (PDF) 3/6/2009
 More Inventory Liquidation to Come as Economy Suffers Hard Landing (PDF) 2/27/2009
 And the Survey Says...Ouch! (PDF) 2/27/2009
 Consumer Survey Highlights Rising Debt to Home Ratios (PDF) 2/20/2009
 Global Woes Crush Canadian Exports (PDF) 2/20/2009
 Speed of Fiscal Initiatives Bodes Well for Second Half Recovery (PDF) 2/13/2009
 How Bad is the Canadian Jobs Market ex-Manufacturing? (PDF) 2/13/2009
 Recession Figures Warn of Dangers Ahead Without Rapid Stimulus (PDF) 2/6/2009
 Canada's Housing Sector Is Still Reeling (PDF) 2/6/2009
 Structure of US Fiscal Stimulus Plan Points to Investment-Led Recovery (PDF) 1/30/2009
 Canada's New Budget and Growth Prospects (PDF) 1/30/2009
 Three Indicators to Trust for Insight on Outlook Despite Poor Visibility (PDF) 1/23/2009
 The Bank of Canada and Jobs (PDF) 1/23/2009
 Will Obama’s Record Stimulus Plan Revive the US Economy? (PDF) 1/16/2009
 A Trade Deficit Is Not Inevitable (PDF) 1/16/2009
 Roadmap to US Recovery in 2009 Requires Revival of Risk Appetites (PDF) 1/9/2009

Asia Pacific

 China’s Prospects of a Smooth Monetary Exit Appear Promising as Loan Growth Moderates (PDF) 11/16/2009
 RBA Stays Cool on Rising Currency as Global Peers Feel the Heat (PDF) 11/6/2009
 We Upgrade Our China GDP Forecast as Economic Recovery Broadens (PDF) 10/30/2009
 Taking Stock of Asia’s Recovery: Leaders, Laggards and Likely Policy Moves (PDF) 10/16/2009
 Korea’s Fundamentals Remain Favorable to KRW Appreciation (PDF) 10/9/2009
 RBA’s Early Move: a Stitch in Time to Save More Rate-Rise Pain Later? (PDF) 10/9/2009
 Rising Industrial Profits Bode Well for China’s Investment Recovery (PDF) 10/2/2009
 Asia’s Patchy Consumption Growth Leans Heavily on Fiscal Stimulus (PDF) 9/25/2009
 Asia’s Inflation May Be Moderate, if Policymakers Avoid Past Mistakes (PDF) 9/18/2009
 Confidence Surges—but Has the Mood Become Too Optimistic? (PDF) 9/18/2009
 China’s Monetary Policy Exit Strategy Hits Political Speed Humps (PDF) 9/11/2009
 Bounce In Government Revenue Enhances China’s Fiscal Capability (PDF) 8/21/2009
 No Alarm Bells Yet, but Is Core Inflation Looking a Little Sticky? (PDF) 8/21/2009
 Asia’s Export Recovery Widens to Include More Markets and Products (PDF) 8/14/2009
 China’s Next Leap Forward: Will It Be as World’s Biggest Consumer? (PDF) 8/7/2009
 Debt No Hindrance as Korea Moves to Fore of Asia’s Resurgence (PDF) 7/24/2009
 Fears that China Will Tighten Early and Choke Recovery Are Overdone (PDF) 7/17/2009
 China May Surprise Consensus (Again) with a Durable Recovery (PDF) 7/10/2009
 Growth Forecasts Rise as Australian Consumer Trends Defy Downturn (PDF) 7/10/2009
 China Enhances Growth with Improved Fiscal Trends and Outlook (PDF) 6/26/2009
 China’s Economic Model May Be Vindicated as Growth Moves Inland (PDF) 6/19/2009
 Improving Financial Factors Underscore Economic Recovery (PDF) 6/12/2009
 China’s Expansionary Policy Boosts Chances of a Consumer Boom (PDF) 6/12/2009
 Still Bullish on Growth, with a Weather Eye on RBA’s Next Move (PDF) 6/12/2009
 Restocking in Autos Helps Output Recovery, But Risk Persists (PDF) 6/5/2009
 China, Rather than Asian Region, Is Contributing to Global Rebalancing (PDF) 6/5/2009
 Japan’s Exports Supported by China Demand, but Strong Yen Weighs (PDF) 5/29/2009
 Stockpile Risk to China’s Recovery Appears Overstated (PDF) 5/29/2009
 Risk of Deflationary Spiral Persists as GDP Growth Appears to Bottom (PDF) 5/22/2009
 As the West Struggles, Emerging Markets Start Asia’s Export Revival (PDF) 5/22/2009
 BOJ Leans Toward Easier Policy Despite Signs of Economic Upturn (PDF) 5/15/2009
 China’s Investment Recovery Helps Absorb Some Slack in Global Trade (PDF) 5/15/2009
 China’s Fiscal Boost Shows Signs of Spilling into Broader Economy (PDF) 5/8/2009
 Yen Is Likely to Continue Weakening Despite Uncertainty of Stimulus (PDF) 5/1/2009
 China’s FX Reserves Diversification Is Positive for Gold Price and RMB (PDF) 5/1/2009
 A Tough Year Ahead, but Prospects for a Recovery Are Encouraging (PDF) 5/1/2009
 Debt Monetization Pressure Mounts on Bank of Japan (PDF) 4/24/2009
 India Will Continue Easing Monetary Policy Until Loan Growth Resumes (PDF) 4/24/2009
 Will Record Fiscal Stimulus Cure Japan’s Woes? (PDF) 4/17/2009
 RMB Outlook Hinges on USD Trend, Despite China’s Improved Prospects (PDF) 4/17/2009
 Yen’s Correction May Help Japan’s Lagging Economy (PDF) 4/9/2009
 Asia’s Policy Stimulus May Offset Most of Its Potential Export Loss (PDF) 4/9/2009
 Industrial Output Begins to Show Signs of Bottoming (PDF) 4/3/2009
 Signs of Stabilization in Korea Enhance Asia’s Recovery Prospects (PDF) 4/3/2009
 Widening GDP Gap Calls for Outlay Beyond Government’s Means (PDF) 3/27/2009
 China’s Shock Proposal May Reshape Global Financial System (PDF) 3/27/2009
 Inventory Overhang Dims Prospects of Output Rebound (PDF) 3/20/2009
 Has China’s Investment Recovery Benefited Global Suppliers? (PDF) 3/20/2009
 Demographic Concerns Deepen Japanese Firms’ Labor Dilemma (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Latest Investment Figures Show China’s Recovery Is Taking Hold (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Jobs Pain Begins, but Household Balance Sheets Have Improved (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Deeper Trough Likely Before Eventual Economic Recovery (PDF) 3/6/2009
 Income, Rather than Retail Data, Offers Clue to China Consumption (PDF) 3/6/2009
 Worsening Trade Deficit Changes Outlook for Yen (PDF) 2/27/2009
 China Joins Flight to Quality with Boost to Holdings of US$ Assets (PDF) 2/27/2009
 Commodity Prices and Policy Trade Places in Economic Tug-of-War (PDF) 2/27/2009
 External Sector Remains a Drag on Growth Despite Positive Price Effect (PDF) 2/20/2009
 Factors Behind Japan’s Recession Suggest Yen May Soon Lose Steam (PDF) 2/13/2009
 China Recovers, but Offers Little Help to Regional Trading Partners (PDF) 2/13/2009
 Free Fall in Industrial Output Signals Historic Recession Is Unfolding (PDF) 2/6/2009
 US’s Lifeline Steadies Korea but Pressure to Repay Debt Remains (PDF) 2/6/2009
 With Policy Now Clearly Stimulatory, the RBA Appears Ready to Pause (PDF) 2/6/2009
 Tighter Bank Lending Heightens Risk of Economy’s Downward Spiral (PDF) 1/23/2009
 Fear of Jobs Crisis Keeps Beijing Under Pressure to Depreciate RMB (PDF) 1/23/2009
 Credit Growth Rebound Increases Chances of China’s Recovery (PDF) 1/16/2009
 Japan Faces Worst Ever Recession with No Bottom in Sight (PDF) 1/9/2009

Europe

 Third Quarter GDP Data Highlight Euro-Area Divergence (PDF) 11/16/2009
 Little Evidence of a Broad-Based Credit Crunch for Euro Area Companies (PDF) 11/6/2009
 Will Weak GDP Data Lead to More Quantitative Easing in the UK? (PDF) 10/30/2009
 Will a Rising Euro Derail the Recovery? (PDF) 10/23/2009
 Headline GDP Data Disguise Euro-Area Frailties (PDF) 10/16/2009
 Will Rising Household Savings Derail a UK Recovery? (PDF) 10/9/2009
 Is Sterling Low Enough to Spark a Revival in Manufacturing? (PDF) 9/25/2009
 Euro Area Trade Data Hold Two Important Messages (PDF) 9/18/2009
 UK Real and Monetary Data Point to Different Policy Prescriptions (PDF) 9/11/2009
 Does Japan’s Rebound Hold Any Clues for the Euro Area? (PDF) 9/4/2009
 Second Quarter GDP Surprise Puts the Euro Area Close to Recovery (PDF) 8/14/2009
 Germany Likely to Lead During the Euro-Area Upswing (PDF) 8/7/2009
 Euro Overvalued at Current Levels (PDF) 7/31/2009
 UK Retail Sales Data Overstate the Strength of Consumer Spending (PDF) 7/24/2009
 Asian Demand Not Yet Strong Enough to Lift Euro-Area Exports (PDF) 7/17/2009
 Positive Fundamentals Point to Stronger Norwegian Krone (PDF) 7/10/2009
 The Bank of England’s QE Dilemma (PDF) 7/2/2009
 Euro-Area Inventory Cycle Close to Turning Point (PDF) 6/26/2009
 Labor Market Rigidities Could Weigh on Euro-Area Recovery (PDF) 6/19/2009
 Sterling Rises, but Medium-Term Outlook Still Cloudy (PDF) 6/12/2009
 Stronger UK Data Argue Against Additional Gilt Purchases (PDF) 6/5/2009
 Record Decline in Euro-Area Output May Point to Shorter Recession (PDF) 5/29/2009
 Euro-Area Export Outlook Brightens, but Watch the Euro (PDF) 5/22/2009
 Interest Rates Still Matter in the UK (PDF) 5/15/2009
 Deflation Risks Recede as Bank of England Increases Gilt Purchases (PDF) 5/8/2009
 Recovery Hopes Rise, but Euro Area Likely to Lag Other Countries (PDF) 5/1/2009
 UK Quantitative Easing: Will it Work, and How Will Gilt Yields React? (PDF) 4/24/2009
 Signs of Hope in the UK (PDF) 4/9/2009
 Has the Euro-Area Economy Reached a Turning Point? (PDF) 4/3/2009
 Quantitative Easing and the ECB (PDF) 3/27/2009
 Can the Euro Survive? (PDF) 3/20/2009
 Germany’s Achilles’ Heel (PDF) 3/13/2009
 Quantitative Easing Has Arrived (PDF) 3/6/2009
 Resilient Consumer Unlikely to Stop Another Big Drop in Euro-Area GDP (PDF) 2/27/2009
 Bank of England Moves One Step Closer to Quantitative Easing (PDF) 2/13/2009
 Assessing the Downside for the UK Housing Market (PDF) 2/6/2009
 ECB Injections Boost Money Market Liquidity ? but Not Lending (PDF) 1/30/2009
 Tough Times for the UK Consumer (PDF) 1/23/2009
 Caution Required Despite Wider Euro-Area Spreads (PDF) 1/16/2009
 Winter Chill Blows Hard in Germany (PDF) 1/9/2009
 
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