Douglas J. Peebles | Context: The AB Blog

July 30, 2019

Midyear Bond Outlook: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals

by Douglas J. Peebles

The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth.

Fixed Income

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May 08, 2019

The Three Risks Bond Investors Should Be Watching

by Douglas J. Peebles

Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road?

Fixed Income

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February 27, 2019

The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation?

by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar.

China, Currency, Economics, Fixed Income

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February 20, 2019

The Long View: Is Tech Helping or Hurting?

by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Is the technological revolution making us more productive? Are we measuring productivity properly? And what does it all mean for monetary policy and countries’ growth potential?

Economics, Fixed Income

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February 13, 2019

The Long View: The Problem with Populism

by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Populist, anti-establishment policies will be with us for a while because the conditions that inspire them, such as rising inequality and stagnant incomes, will, too. That has long-term implications for inflation and global growth that investors cannot ignore.

Economics, Fixed Income

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February 06, 2019

The Long View: Debt and Demographics

by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future?

Economics, Fixed Income

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January 09, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook: Three Themes We’re Watching in 2019

by Douglas J. Peebles

The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same?

Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility

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October 24, 2018

Crowded Trades, Liquidity Problems and Tech Solutions

by Gershon Distenfeld, Douglas J. Peebles, Scott DiMaggio, Jeff Skoglund, James Switzer

Crowded trades have become all too common in fixed-income markets. But running with the crowd is risky, particularly when it comes to illiquid assets like bank loans that may not be easy to sell during a market downturn.

Fixed Income, Tech & Innovation

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September 12, 2018

Are Bank Loans a Cure for Rising Rates? History Suggests Otherwise

by Douglas J. Peebles, Gershon Distenfeld

Investors tend to think of floating-rate bank loans as the cure for rising interest rates. But our research suggests that a rising-rate environment has historically been the worst time to buy loans.

Fixed Income

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August 27, 2018

Imbalance of Trade: What Trade Wars Mean for Market Stability

by Douglas J. Peebles

Reduced global trade may have the unintended consequence of strengthening the US dollar, raising interest rates and pushing down stock prices. Together with tighter Federal Reserve policy, these developments may increase market turbulence.

Currency, Fixed Income, Volatility

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August 14, 2018

Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers

by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz

From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility.

Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation

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Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More

July 20, 2018

June 11, 2018

by Douglas J. Peebles

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by Douglas J. Peebles

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

China, Currency, Economics, Fixed Income

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Economics, Fixed Income

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Economics, Fixed Income

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd

Economics, Fixed Income

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by Douglas J. Peebles

Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility

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by Gershon Distenfeld, Douglas J. Peebles, Scott DiMaggio, Jeff Skoglund, James Switzer

Fixed Income, Tech & Innovation

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Gershon Distenfeld

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by Douglas J. Peebles

Currency, Fixed Income, Volatility

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by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz

Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation

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by Douglas J. Peebles

Fixed Income, Volatility

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by Douglas J. Peebles

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