Capturing the Ups and Downs in Coronavirus Equity Markets

But Growth stocks delivered the most surprising results. This was the only factor to protect much better than expected during the downturn, and then also outperform in the bounce off the bottom.

Investors can evaluate these patterns by looking at upside/downside capture. Upside capture measures how much the factor increased relative to a rising broad market. Downside capture measures how much the factor declines relative to the falling market.

By combining these measures—upside capture minus downside capture—we can evaluate total market capture as a spread. A positive spread means the factor collects more good times than bad times, which may lead to outperformance over time. Likewise, a negative spread means the factor accumulates more bad times than good, a result that often leads to underperformance.

Comparing the spread between the upside/downside capture ratio this year to historic norms shows just how different recent performance patterns have been.

For both Min Vol and Value, the upside/downside capture spread was roughly 30% worse than average. For Min Vol stocks, the performance during the downturn was particularly surprising, as these stocks usually provide protection in a falling market. In contrast, Growth stocks posted a positive spread of 29% over average.

Unusual Circumstances Create Unusual Opportunities

COVID-19 shutdowns created an unconventional cause for the correction and may have played a hand in the unlikely sector performance results.

This time around, investors didn’t flock to the traditional relative safety of low-volatility sectors like utilities and real estate during the sell-off. Instead, they congregated in growth companies like online retail, at-home media and technology hardware and equipment—industries that benefited from the health crisis and lockdowns. The performance of the industries, both favored and slighted, contributed to the uncharacteristic upside/downside captures for the factors shown above.

No Norm Here, New or Not

Will these patterns be the new norm? Too hard to say. But the distortions may provide opportunities for investors to rebalance portfolios. Since 2013, Min Vol stocks have not been this cheap, and Growth has not been more expensive.

However, not all Growth stocks are created or valued equally. There are a wide variety of growth businesses with wildly differing valuations, so selectivity is key. And quality defensive investments currently offer some of the best risk-adjusted return potential, in our view.

The world remains an uncertain place. COVID-19 cases continue to increase, US-China tensions are high, economic ambiguity persists, not to mention the upcoming US election. Over the long term, we believe a dynamic defensive strategy can help fuel an offense during volatile market episodes.

The types of stocks that provide protection in a crisis are always changing. By finding select high-quality defensive stocks for a given crisis at reasonable prices, investors can reduce losses in a sell-off, which makes it easier to recover when markets rebound.