With a record tax increase on tap for January 1, 2013, there has never been a better time for Washington to have a serious debate about fiscal policy. Before the economy reaches the so-called fiscal cliff, when huge tax increases and spending cuts are scheduled to take effect,US voters will have the opportunity to make a clear choice between two fiscal visions in the November elections.

The US economic recovery is progressing in fits and starts. Short-lived “risk-on” periods, when companies and consumers invest more, seem to constantly give way to “risk-off” periods, with anxiety and fear restraining economic activity.

Last month, I explained why weak US jobs numbers for March shouldn’t be taken at face value. Since then, we’ve had another month of disappointing employment data—and I have some more evidence to suggest that the underlying trends are better than you might think.

It seems like every twist and turn in the US employment data is being observed under a microscope. But don’t let the weak job numbers in March fool you—the underlying trends still point to continued improvements on the employment front.

Risk-taking is an important component of an economic recovery, as it unlocks spending and investment power that is pent up during a downturn. But two and a half years since the US recession ended, individual investors are still playing it safe. 

The forces driving the global economy are changing.  We expect the US economy to take on a bigger role in the global recovery in 2012, while growth in emerging markets decelerates from the fast pace in 2011.

There seems to be a disconnect between US corporate earnings and the state of the economy these days.

As challenges to the global economy intensify, regional growth is likely to diverge next year. During 2012, we expect stronger gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Japan and the US, while economic growth in many European countries is likely to decelerate sharply or even contract a bit.  

Europe is the epicenter of global weakness. We now expect the European economy as a whole to contract modestly (by 0.1%) in 2012. This change in our view on Europe prompted us to reduce our estimates of global GDP growth to 2.8% for 2011 and 2.8% for 2012.

It’s been a long time since the US has been widely appreciated as a good place for multinational companies to locate new manufacturing plants. Chinese labor is cheap, and emerging markets are increasingly efficient, so why should a global automaker or technology giant choose to manufacture in the US?

The answer is because the US has dramatically improved its cost advantage versus industrialized countries, and has narrowed the gap with emerging markets as well.