September 14, 2021 How Populism May Sway Policies in Emerging Markets by Adriaan du Toit COVID-19 has aggravated inequality and social problems across EM economies, fueling populism. Key ESG metrics can help show potential pressure points. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Inflation, Responsible Investing/ESG Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 10, 2021 When Will Inflation Lift Off? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Disruptions and dislocations associated with COVID-19 mean current economic data may not be a reliable guide to the future. But by turning to the past, we find compelling evidence that inflation regime change is accelerating. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 09, 2021 Change Looms at the Fed: What Will It Mean for Monetary Policy? by Eric Winograd Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair Jay Powell’s term expires in February, and both vice chairs face expiring tenures, too. With another seat already open, how will the Biden administration balance the desire for monetary policy continuity with a wish list that includes tighter bank regulation? Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 01, 2021 What’s the Policy Playbook for the Inflation Endgame? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten A shift in the inflation landscape is underway. But what will the new regime look like? Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 19, 2021 Can Advances in Technology Keep a Lid on Inflation? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Technology is advancing at a rapid pace, but will this be enough to offset the impact of a higher-inflation regime? Not necessarily. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 18, 2021 What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Taper by Eric Winograd Many investors are trying to project the moving parts of the coming Federal Reserve taper, which we expect to be announced in the fourth quarter. There are key questions still to be answered: What mix of securities? How fast? What comes next? We lay out our best assessment. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2021 Will Policy Changes Open the Door to Higher Inflation? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten As policy priorities change, we believe inflation is on the verge of an important shift higher. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 26, 2021 Brace (But Not Too Much) for the CPI Roller-Coaster by Guy Bruten Second-quarter Australian CPI could be much higher than expected. Coming on top of the country’s strong economic performance and talk among some central banks about “normalising” policy, the news could unsettle investors. But we don’t think they need to worry—or, at least, not just yet. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 23, 2021 This Too Shall Pass: The Micro Case for Transitory Inflation by Susan Hutman, Robert Hopper, Eric Winograd The macroeconomic picture suggests the recent uptick in US inflation is temporary. But is it? We dig into the micro data that makes the case. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 15, 2021 Post-Pandemic Policymaking Could Drive Emerging Markets Apart by Adriaan du Toit Slow vaccine rollouts threaten not only to take a sizable human toll but also to scar some emerging economies. Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 03, 2021 Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (June Update) by Jonathan Berkow, Scott Krauthamer As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
May 27, 2021 The Fed Will Likely Taper…but Don’t Expect a Tantrum by Eric Winograd Investors have begun to speculate about when the Fed will start tapering its quantitative easing (QE) asset purchases—we think later this year. But officials have learned from their past mistakes and will likely take steps to avoid a repeat of 2013’s “taper tantrum.” Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 11, 2021 Will COVID-19 Accelerate Euro-Area Integration? by Darren Williams, Nicholas Sanders The political response to the COVID-19 crisis may be positive for the European integration project—and for euro-area bond markets. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks