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Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2026

01 July 2026

1 min read

What You Need to Know

Geopolitical tensions haven’t discouraged investors, who seem long-term focused—especially on the promise of AI. Higher inflation has pushed some central banks to hike rates, while the US Fed held fast at its June meeting. Overall, the global economy appears resilient, which we think should continue.

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Key Forecast Trends

Rising energy prices pushed up inflation, crimping the growth outlook for some regions, but not enough to trigger recessions, in our view.
Central bank policy divergence is underway, with the euro area and Japan raising rates and the Fed and several others preferring to “wait and see.”
We no longer expect Fed moves in either direction in 2026, given the labor market’s rebound and other signs of a stronger-than-expected economy.
In Europe, Spain continues to outperform while Germany should turn positive, and while the region welcomes a US-Iran deal, the damage will take time to reverse.
Emerging markets have weathered the oil price shock well, supported by AI-led business spending and wealth-driven consumption that tends to spill over into these countries.
China’s outlook is bifurcated: technology is performing well but consumption and real estate are challenged—a balance likely to keep the economy stable, if unexciting, for now.

Global Macro Outlook: The Next Six Months

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

Current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results.

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