Global Macro Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2023

October 04, 2023
3 min read

What You Need To Know

The global economy remained resilient last quarter, although some regions now feel the pinch of aggressive central bank policies. Inflation is down but a return to normal could take time. We expect a manageable economic slowdown with a gradual inflation dip, but some risks will hover.

Key Forecast Trends

  • Years of aggressive monetary conditions have begun to bite, and global central banks appear near the end of their respective tightening cycles.
  • Growth in Europe was weaker than the US, since households there had comparatively smaller savings to navigate high inflation.  
  • Emerging markets have been relatively resilient, with record-level remittances a contributing factor.  
  • China’s growth continues to disappoint, primarily due to a longer-term secular slowdown, and we expect further policy easing as a result.
  • We now believe the Fed, as well as the Bank of England and European Central Bank, will hold rates for several quarters before undertaking a gradual easing cycle.
  • Investors should be optimistic, but watchful of events that could change the picture in the coming quarters.
The Global Cycle for 4Q:2023

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

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