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Global Macro Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2026

Oct 02, 2026
1 min read

Summary

The global economy remains resilient amid war tensions and soaring energy costs. AI-driven investment and productivity gains are helping offset inflation pressures, while central banks increasingly diverge on policy. We think growth should remain positive through 2026, though elevated oil prices, market complacency and geopolitical risks warrant caution.

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Key Forecast Trends

  • AI-driven investment and productivity gains continue to support the economic outlook.
  • Inflation is proving sticky, keeping central bank policymakers cautious and slowing the pace of interest rate cuts globally.
  • With September’s rate hike in the rear view, we expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, reflecting persistent inflation and a still-resilient US economy.
  • The euro area is navigating slower growth and higher rates, as policymakers balance inflation concerns against weakening economic momentum.
  • Emerging markets are showing resilience, supported by investment flows and domestic demand.
  • China's technology sector remains strong, but consumer spending and property markets lag.

Global Macro Outlook: The Next Six Months

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations, do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams and are subject to change over time.