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European Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Adversity, Uncertainty, Opportunity

Jan 06, 2025
4 min read

European bond markets are climbing a mountain of worry. Despite the risks, history suggests a positive outcome.

Europe faces adversity and uncertainty. The negatives are easy to list but hard to quantify: the financial and human costs of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East; increased military spending, potentially hiking at least 1% to a minimum 3% of GDP; higher US tariffs, at maybe 10%–20%, or more for certain industries like autos; and additional green transition costs estimated at 2.5% of GDP annually for two decades.

High deficits across much of Europe and political instability in France and Germany constrain policymakers’ freedom of action, while the return of President Trump threatens to exacerbate Europe’s competitiveness problems and populist pressures.

Against that challenging background, we find the outlook for European bond markets surprisingly bright. High yields and falling interest rates have historically been powerful positives for bond investors  and—barring worst-case outcomes like another war or pandemic—may be so again in 2025.

Stalling Growth and Falling Rates Mean Lower Bond Yields

European economies are already struggling to return to meaningful growth after the COVID pandemic, and an external shock could push the region into recession. The market expects the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy rate to settle around the pre-pandemic norm of 2% over the next few years.

We think that level is too high and that rates will fall further, as Europe faces the same structural problems as before the pandemic. At its December 2024 meeting, the ECB Governing Council flagged an end to restrictive monetary policy, paving the way for rate cuts at each subsequent meeting until June 2025. Fresh challenges from Trump’s policies could mean even more ECB and Bank of England rate cuts. Meanwhile, these policies could result in higher US nominal growth and inflation, and fewer cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

The prospects of much lower rates in Europe and stronger growth in the US will likely be major positives for euro and sterling bond markets over the next two years. We expect a particularly favorable environment for bonds with 0–10 years to maturity; their yields would be pulled lower as central banks cut interest rates. We also expect some steepening of the yield curve, as longer-dated European Treasuries could be hurt by the fiscal deterioration we've seen across governments globally.

European Credit Is Still Robust

Investment-grade issuers with the strongest financials will be the most resilient to weakening economies and tariff pressures, and their bonds should benefit most from falling rates, in our view. High-yield issuers are more sensitive to changes in economic prospects and could be more affected by a growth slowdown. Even so, European high-yield corporates start from a position of strength. Current yields look attractive relative to history and have been a good indicator of future returns, irrespective of market conditions (Display).

Current Yield Has Been a Strong Predictor of Future Returns
Yield to Worst and Five-Year Forward Annualized Returns (Percent)
From 2002, across quite different investment regimes, five-year annualized returns have closely mirrored the starting yield.

Current and historical analyses do not guarantee future results.
Returns shown are for the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield (Euro) Index.
The acronym GFC denotes the global financial crisis.
As of December 31, 2024
Source: Bloomberg and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Demand for euro high-yield credit remains strong relative to supply and, although spreads are mostly relatively tight, current yield levels provide a substantial cushion to mitigate setbacks (Display).

Yields Need to Rise Significantly Before Investors Lose Money
Yield Breakeven (Basis Points)
From January 2021 the breakeven spread level has varied from a low of 80 basis points to 260 in October 2023 to 201 recently.

Current and historical analyses do not guarantee future results.
Breakeven level shown is for the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield (Euro) Index. Breakeven yield is calculated as the index yield divided by index effective duration.
As of December 31, 2024
Source: Bloomberg and AB

We think spreads will likely remain range-bound given the powerful appeal of current yields.

Though we expect some deterioration as conditions get tougher, euro high-yield issuers’ fundamentals are mostly strong: around 65% of the high-yield market is BB-rated, and issuers in this group don’t necessarily need strong growth to service their debt. By contrast, more indebted issuers rated CCC and below will likely need growth to sustain their capital structures and are vulnerable to a slowdown.

Given macroeconomic uncertainties, we also believe corporate issuers will have relatively limited appetite to stretch their balance sheets by aggressive acquisitions or share buybacks—a further positive for bond investors.

As rates continue to fall, we think European investors who shun bonds and stay in cash could incur a sizeable opportunity cost. Flows out of money market funds into credit markets were strong in 2024, and we see that trend continuing as the ECB continues easing and as curves steepen again. 

Sector and Security Selection Will Be Key

All in all, we expect European bond markets to continue to benefit in 2025 from the same positive fundamental, technical and valuation factors that proved supportive in 2024.

Even so, we believe markets will be highly sensitive to political and economic news and particularly to any breaking news on US tariff proposals. Markets are currently guessing the likely impact of a wide range of potential outcomes; as the actual impact becomes clearer, bond prices could move significantly, particularly for the most heavily impacted industries and issuers.

Financial stresses and voter revolt could also force European governments to row back on some of their net zero commitments, with important repercussions across a wide range of European issuers. Investors will need to stay alert to these events as they unfold and to moves in securities prices that could over- or under-discount the impacts of change.

Tools that can objectively analyze and consistently evaluate financially material ESG metrics and systematically harness quantitative and fundamental research across vast numbers of bond issues will be vital. By developing these capabilities, investors can fully assess the impact of potentially wide-ranging changes, mitigate risks and capture opportunities during 2025 and beyond.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.

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