Capital Markets Outlook
The Devil is in the Details
The big story in 2022 was aggressive rate hikes as central banks battled historic inflation. 2023 will be a year of transition—from high inflation and slowing growth to lower inflation and low growth. What impact will higher-for-longer rates have on markets? We think the devil will indeed be in the details in 2023.
Key Insights from the CMO
2023 will be a transition year, as central banks induce economic pain in their battle to cool off inflation [4:29]
As fears pivot to economic recession, earnings move into the spotlight for equity markets [23:50]
Higher yields have put the income back in fixed income and credit metrics strengthen the case for corporate bonds [38:15]
Today, it seems as though everyone is trying to be a market timer because we're trying to guess when it's good to get in. And that is a very difficult proposition, so I would instead ask for you to imagine a point that might be two years out, as we make our way to our normalization, rather than trying to guess the entry point.
Rick Brink—Chief Market Strategist
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Get Caught Up on Last Quarter’s Outlook
October 12, 2022 / 68 min
4Q:22 Capital Markets Outlook – It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Markets wrestled with evolving macro and policy signals in the third quarter, with the Fed ultimately sending a strong anti-inflation message. The S&P 500 and high-yield bonds ended up about where they started—but US Treasury yields were the highest in years, with the curve substantially inverted.