Capital Markets Outlook
Expert insights on the economy, markets, and the critical impacts to investments
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4Q 2024 Capital Markets Outlook Webcast—Normalization: Endgame
Presented by Rick A. Brink, CFA, Eric Winograd, Walt Czaicki, CFA, Matt Sheridan, CFA and Daryl Clements
Although the pandemic has grown increasingly distant in the rearview mirror, many of its economic ramifications have lasted well into 2024. As we look ahead to the final quarter of the year, and into 2025, we expect the US economy to shake off the lingering effects of the pandemic and officially start a new chapter. This chapter will notably include lower rates and a new president in the White House. However, with change typically comes a degree of discomfort and uncertainty. Fortunately, a strong foundation has afforded the Fed time and flexibility to ease the US economy into a soft landing.
What We Discussed
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The State of the “Trinity”: All eyes remain fixed on inflation, growth and labor but unlike past quarters, the Fed is more focused on labor as inflation becomes ever more predictable.
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Magnificent Seven vs. the Others: Equity opportunities have started broadening, but questions remain around its longevity as the economy continues to normalize, valuations become more stretched, and earnings expectations set a high bar for companies to reach.
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Bonds and the Road to Normalization: While rates fell sharply at the news of cuts, the critical determinant variables of pace and end point will bring volatility as markets search for solid footing ahead.
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AB's Capital Markets Committee discuss opportunities across asset classes and market segments our quarterly outlook webcast.
With growth moderating and inflation cooling, the US seems on track for a soft landing—as markets digest a stream of incoming information.
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Get Caught Up on Last Quarter’s Outlook
July 10, 2024 / 63 min
Presented by Richard A. Brink, CFA, Eric Winograd; Walt Czaicki, CFA; Scott DiMaggio, CFA, and Daryl Clements
3Q:24 Capital Markets Outlook: Distinguishing Signal from Noise
Another all-time high for equity markets, another round of question marks. Many of the questions are familiar as a critical transition point looms. The US economy still seems on track toward normal, but a pendulum has swung: when it comes to the picture painted by macro data, many investors’ primary worry has shifted from “too strong” to “too weak.”
On top of a seemingly noisy macroeconomic picture, equity market returns have been decidedly top-heavy, driven by a handful of beneficiaries from the artificial intelligence (AI) wave. It’s hard to argue against the quality of those names, but they’ll need to back up lofty earnings expectations in the quarters ahead to continue their run. In the meantime, there’s life—and opportunity—beyond the kingpins.