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Capital Markets Outlook
Your Guide to Market Trends and Opportunities
Get ahead with quarterly insights from leading experts on key drivers of economics and market shifts. From macro trends to investment strategies, we equip you with actionable insightst and perspectives to cut through the noise and seize emerging opportunities.
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Presented by Richard A. Brink, CFA
In 2025, active investors can find opportunities amidst upcoming policy changes and the evolving macro landscape. With healthy bond yields and potential beyond the dominant leaders of the US equity market, the journey ahead promises to be anything but smooth. However, disruption often paves the way for strategic maneuvering.
What We Discussed:
Bonds and the Road to Normalization:
The focus has shifted from the Fed to the White House, as fiscal policy complicates macro trends. While markets were skeptical about rate cuts earlier this year, they’ve been pricing in more reductions as uncertainty grows. However, the pace and endpoint are anything but firm.
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Get Caught Up on Last Quarter’s Outlook
October 8, 2024 / 66 min
Presented by Walt Czaicki, CFA, Eric Winograd, Matt Sheridan, CFA, and Daryl Clements
4Q:24 Capital Markets Outlook— Normalization: Endgame
Although the pandemic has grown increasingly distant in the rearview mirror, many of its economic ramifications have lasted well into 2024. As we look ahead to the final quarter of the year, and into 2025, we expect the US economy to shake off the lingering effects of the pandemic and officially start a new chapter. This chapter will notably include lower rates and a new president in the White House. However, with change typically comes a degree of discomfort and uncertainty. Fortunately, a strong foundation has afforded the Fed time and flexibility to ease the US economy into a soft landing.
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Webcast Replay
63 min watch
AB's Capital Markets Committee discuss opportunities across asset classes and market segments our quarterly outlook webcast.
5 min read
With growth moderating and inflation cooling, the US seems on track for a soft landing—as markets digest a stream of incoming information.
What We'll Discuss
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The “macro gap” in Fed rate cut expectations:
As key variables such as inflation, growth and the labor market have normalized, Fed members have reached diverse conclusions on the best next steps for monetary policy. We’ll discuss what rate path we expect and scenarios that could upend current trends.
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The “fundamental gap” between earnings and multiples:
Earnings have started to exit their multiyear stupor, but multiples have forgotten to take a breather. This doesn’t have to mean the party’s over, but it is a reminder that portfolios need more diversification. We’ll assess the market landscape and which areas we think offer the best opportunities.
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The “political gap” between present and future fiscal policies:
The Biden administration will give way to the Trump administration in 2025. As we overlay Trump’s platform on current trends, we expect fiscal policy to play a bigger market role over the next four years. We’ll review the policy menu and its potential effects.
Last Quarter
Get Caught Up on Last Quarter's Outlook
Explore our topics from 1Q 2025 Capital Markets Outlook: Mind the Gaps
What We Discussed:
In our view, active investors face opportunities to outperform created by looming policy changes and the macro landscape. Bond yields remain healthy, and we see potential beyond the concentrated leaders of the US equity market. It won’t be a smooth ride—but disruption also creates room to maneuver.
30 January 2025
/
6 min watch
In 2025, active investors can find opportunities amidst upcoming policy changes and the evolving macro landscape. With healthy bond yields and potential beyond the dominant leaders of the US equity market, the journey ahead promises to be anything but smooth. However, disruption often paves the way for strategic maneuvering.