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The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.
The reopening trade: Companies that are most likely to benefit from economies opening back up will be the most obvious growth driver in 2021. But the recovery path won’t be the usual slog. Strong pent-up business and consumer demand for goods will accelerate the turnaround once lockdowns are fully removed, which will play out in the markets rather swiftly. On one hand, many companies will find it easy to post strong earnings growth against last year’s depressed levels, especially in retail and travel, which suffered the most in 2020. On the other hand, it will be easy to identify companies that are struggling to keep up the growth momentum they may have inherited from the pandemic’s demand spike for certain services.
Changed behaviors: Consumers do a lot of things differently than they did 12 months ago—more online shopping, use of credit and debit cards over cash, and how they watch their favorite movies and TV shows. Many of these changes will persist. The UK, for instance, recently more than doubled the contactless credit card payment limit to GBP100 (Display left). For businesses, working from home and less employee travel has reduced expenses and helped push up margins. Business equipment rentals, which usually take a hit in recessions, held steady through the pandemic (Display right). All told, this could mean 2020 winners will keep winning, while some companies that are expecting a “return to normal” may never realize it.
Left display through March 2021; right display through January 2021
Source: Ashtead, MoneySavingExpert.com and AllianceBernstein (AB)
Margin expansion: Profitability growth will be critical now, especially when so many companies were forgiven for margin compression in 2020. If moderate inflation returns, as expected, the test will be even harder in 2021 compared to pre-crisis expectations. Companies may grow; but if their margins still shrink, the market will penalize them. Pricing power will be ever more essential, so companies with differentiated or highly desirable products and services that are in short supply should do well.
The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.