Disruptor Series

2024 US Election Outlook: Politics Don't Matter?

 

AB Disruptor Series: 2024 US Election Outlook - Politics Don't Matter?

September 30, 2024
Presented by Richard A. Brink, CFAEric WinogradVinay Thapar, CFALuke Pryor, and Ronald Brownstein

The 2024 US presidential election is still months away and already entrenched as one of the most eventful in the country’s history. What started as a historic contest between the current president and former president has evolved into a flurry of poll-changing, momentum-shifting developments.

The exclamation mark: President Biden’s late-cycle decision to withdraw his candidacy. But behind the sensational headlines and endlessly debated storylines, we see a few core tenets at the center of this year’s battle of the ballot box. They hold implications for all of us—as investors and voters.

 

What We Discussed:

 

  1. The Rise of Political Polarization: The rule of thumb is that elections don’t matter to markets, but we think they do today. For decades, globalization and the rise of tech and finance powered productivity, profits and markets. However, the resulting impacts on labor, income and wealth distribution have fueled division. 
  2. Drivers (Past and Present) of the 2024 Election: The electoral map has effectively “hard coded” the majority of US state votes as red or blue, and 2024 will likely be the third straight presidential election decided by razor-thin margins in a few states. We examined the critical metrics.
  3. Investment Implications of the 2024 Results: A big gap often exists between campaign promises and actual policy. We’ explored the potential macro, market and sector impacts of the candidates’ proposals as well as how investors might factor the election into portfolio decisions.
 
 

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