Disruptor SeriesSM
A quarterly insight and event series providing distinct perspectives on critical issues facing the capital markets
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2024 US Election Outlook: Politics Don't Matter?
Presented by Richard A. Brink, CFA, Eric Winograd, Vinay Thapar, CFA, Luke Pryor, and Ronald Brownstein
The 2024 US presidential election is still months away and already entrenched as one of the most eventful in the country’s history. What started as a historic contest between the current president and former president has evolved into a flurry of poll-changing, momentum-shifting developments.
The exclamation mark: President Biden’s late-cycle decision to withdraw his candidacy. But behind the sensational headlines and endlessly debated storylines, we see a few core tenets at the center of this year’s battle of the ballot box. They hold implications for all of us—as investors and voters.
What We Discussed:
- The Rise of Political Polarization: The rule of thumb is that elections don’t matter to markets, but we think they do today. For decades, globalization and the rise of tech and finance powered productivity, profits and markets. However, the resulting impacts on labor, income and wealth distribution have fueled division.
- Drivers (Past and Present) of the 2024 Election: The electoral map has effectively “hard coded” the majority of US state votes as red or blue, and 2024 will likely be the third straight presidential election decided by razor-thin margins in a few states. We examined the critical metrics.
- Investment Implications of the 2024 Results: A big gap often exists between campaign promises and actual policy. We’ explored the potential macro, market and sector impacts of the candidates’ proposals as well as how investors might factor the election into portfolio decisions.
What We'll Discuss
-
The Rise of Political Polarization: The rule of thumb is that elections don’t matter to markets, but we think they do today.
-
Drivers (Past and Present) of the 2024 Election: We'll examine the critical metrics as this will likely be the third straight presidential election decided by razor-thin margins in a few states.
-
Investment Implications of the 2024 Results: We’ll explore the potential macro, market and sector impacts of the candidates’ proposals as well as how investors might factor the election into portfolio decisions.
Presented By
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Today’s investment world has been called a “factor zoo,” but value was arguably the first.
US banks continue to garner headlines—almost a year removed from the heart of the regional crisis, and with the looming end of the Fed’s program to help stop the bleeding.
Real estate is the original asset: a distinct combination of investment potential and utility for businesses and households.
Oil prices have been volatile for the past few years, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended the entire supply/demand framework.
At the center of the debate two key questions emerge: How much debt is actually too much? And what happens when a country reaches that point?
The renewable energy transition won't be linear, and it won't be smooth—reinventing a global energy system in just 20 to 30 years is a monumental task.
Oil prices have been volatile for the past few years and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended the entire supply/demand framework.
For decades, globalization’s rise has driven down inflationary pressures and yields, thus increasing corporate profit margins, valuations in equity markets, and bond prices.
Dormant for many years, it has returned with a vengeance, fed by pandemic-related challenges and easy-money policies
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