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Decoupling from Volatility

A New Path for VA Risk Management

13 March 2020
2 min read

What You Need to Know

Our analysis of recent performance struggles in variable annuity (VA) risk-managed platforms reveals an overwhelming concentration in volatility-targeting solutions. But the challenge also highlights a path to enhancing diversification in risk-managed platforms—with a solution that decouples from volatility targeting.

US$150 Billion
In risk-managed solutions analyzed by AB
to understand drivers of performance across market cycles
80%+
Of risk-managed solutions
ended up in bottom two performance quartiles for trailing five-year returns
1.21
Risk/return ratio for enhanced risk-managed solution
versus 0.94 for traditional 60/40 strategy
Authors

Executive Summary

Risk-managed solutions are a compelling proposition for VA providers’ investment platforms, offering the potential to control volatility and improve policyholders’ long-run wealth accumulation while also enabling insurers to better hedge long-term liabilities. Given this appeal, the dramatic growth in this category since the global financial crisis (GFC) comes as no surprise.

However, many risk-managed solutions have struggled in recent years, posting disappointing returns. To understand what happened, and how insurers might be able to further enhance risk-managed platforms, we conducted a proprietary analysis of a large sample of risk-managed solutions. It’s a cohort that spans nearly 160 unique strategies with nearly $260 billion in assets under management.

Our work identified a widespread reliance on recent realized or implied volatility levels as inputs to determine the equity allocation. This has caused many risk-managed solutions to be sluggish when re-risking in a new market regime that features rapid sell-offs and fast recoveries—often with still-elevated volatility.

Identifying the source of the issue also points to a solution: designing a risk-managed solution that decouples risk management from volatility management. Incorporating underlying asset prices as an allocation input instead of volatility enables more dynamic equity-allocation responses that can capture a greater share of equity market rebounds. Cost-effective option exposure and fixed-income duration extension can also help reduce the impact of large drawdowns.

This new approach aligns with insurers’ approach to hedging long-term liabilities, effectively acting as a synthetic hedge. It also happens to possess the attributes of an effective investment strategy that won’t impair policyholders’ wealth-accumulation plans and that demonstrates attractive risk/return characteristics. Because no risk-managed solution wins all the time, incorporating this solution can further diversify VA risk-managed platforms, improving outcomes for VA providers as well as policyholders.

Past performance, historical and current analyses, and expectations do not guarantee future results.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.


About the Authors